It looks like the Big 12 football game is coming down to the wire again.
With 36 days until the conference championship game and five top-ranked teams in the league, November will be crucial in determining who comes out on top.
Fortunately for BYU fans, the Cougars sit atop the Big 12 with 8-0 and 5-0 records in conference play, the only undefeated team in the conference and, along with Cincinnati, the only team to remain perfect in Big 12 play.
Special Issue: “1984: A Year Second to None at Brigham Young University”
Complete look at BYU football's 1984 national championship season.
BYU got off to a hot start last year, but two narrow losses in November kept the Cougars from the Big 12 Championship Game; however, current advanced indicators point to a happy ending for the 2025 Cougars.
ESPN Analytics uses a variety of formulas, including the Football Power Index (FPI), record strength and more, to predict the specific outcome of every college football game. I looked at the algorithm's predictions for every Big 12 game remaining this season to determine how the year-end standings might change and who will likely be in contention for the conference title come December 6.
Listed below are the Big 12's five current conference leaders and their respective remaining schedules.
Each game includes the team's current percentage chance of winning that day given by ESPN Analytics, with cumulative totals and conference records compiled together as determined by the algorithm.
Injuries, coaching changes, new game results and a host of other factors will certainly cause these percentages to fluctuate over the coming weeks, but for now we'll stick with what they say today.
While you should never completely trust this data, any Cougar fans who consider themselves analytics believers might want to take a look at what Texas travel looks like in early December.
Brigham Young University
Current record: 8-0 (5-0 in Big 12 play)
BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier (47) celebrates after rushing for a touchdown against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Lavelle Edwards Stadium, Friday, Oct. 3, 2025, in Provo. | Rio Giancarlo, Deseret News
Remaining schedule
- At Texas Tech — 41.9% chance to win.
- contrast. TCU — 75.3%.
- Cincinnati — 56.7%.
- contrast. University of Central Florida – 84.6%.
Projected final record based on analytics: 11-1 (8-1 in Big 12 play).
Texas Tech University
Current record: 7-1 (4-1 in Big 12 play)
Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton throws a pass during the second half of a game against Houston on Saturday, Oct. 4, 2025. |Associated Press
Remaining schedule
- At Kansas State — 64.4 percent chance of winning.
- contrast. Brigham Young University — 58.1%.
- contrast. University of Central Florida – 85.2%.
- In West Virginia — 90.5 percent.
Projected final record based on analytics: 11-1 (8-1 in Big 12 play).
cincinnati
Current record: 7-1 (5-0 in Big 12 play)
Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Thorsby (2) throws the ball during a game against Oklahoma State on Saturday, Oct. 18, 2025, in Stillwater, Oklahoma. |Associated Press
Remaining schedule
- In Utah – the chance of winning is 19.5%.
- contrast. Arizona — 75.4%.
- contrast. Brigham Young University — 43.3%.
- At TCU — 43.8%.
Projected final record based on analytics: 8-4 (6-3 in Big 12 play).
Houston
Current record: 7-1 (4-1 in Big 12 play)
Houston quarterback Connor Wegman (1) celebrates his touchdown against Arizona State on Saturday, Oct. 25, 2025, in Tempe, Arizona. |Associated Press
Remaining schedule
- contrast. West Virginia — 81.1% chance of winning.
- University of Central Florida — 37.0%.
- contrast. TCU — 44.5%.
- Baylor University — 43.1%.
Projected final record based on analytics: 8-4 (5-4 in Big 12 play).
Utah
Current record: 6-2 (3-2 in Big 12 play)
Utah State quarterback Devon Dampier (4) and Utah State wide receiver Ryan Davis (9) celebrate after Dampier's touchdown during the Rose Bowl game between Utah State and UCLA, Saturday, Aug. 30, 2025, in Pasadena. Utah won 43-10. |Scott G Winterton, Deseret News
Remaining schedule
- contrast. Cincinnati — 80.5 percent chance of winning.
- Baylor University — 79.1%.
- contrast. Kansas – 79.8%.
- Kansas — 76.7%.
Projected final record based on analytics: 10-2 (7-2 in Big 12 play).
Analytics-Based Predictions for Big 12 Championship Game Showdowns
11-1 Brigham Young University vs. 11-1 Texas Tech
What is the Big 12's tiebreaker policy?
According to the Big 12 rulebook, here is a list of the conference's two-team tiebreaker policies:
- A head-to-head matchup between two teams that ended in a draw
- Win percentage of tied teams against all common division opponents
- Win percentage against average opponent ranked second in the standings
- Combined winning percentage of league opponent league games
- Total number of wins in 12 games in the season
- Top Rankings from SportSource Analytics
- flip a coin