Former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira takes on fellow ranked contender Mateusz Gamro in the main event of UFC Fight Night in Rio de Janeiro on Saturday (7 p.m. ET live on ESPN+, 4 p.m. prelims).
Oliveira (35-11, 1 NC) last fought in June, unsuccessfully trying to regain the title and losing to Ilia Topuria via first-round knockout. Brazilian Oliveira has never lost five fights in the UFC in his home country and is currently ranked third in the ESPN lightweight rankings.
The ninth-ranked Gamrot (25-3, 1 NC) has won four of his last five fights, most recently a unanimous decision victory over Ludovit Klein in May.
ESPN MMA analysts Din Thomas and Anthony Smith provide their main event predictions, and ESPN betting expert Ian Parker adds insight into the value bets available on the fight card.
Lightweight Main Event
Expert Selection Method Din Thomas
mixed martial arts coach
Gamro decides on Anthony Smith
ESPN MMA Analyst
Gamro Decision
Oliveira is a strong opponent of Gamrot. With Gamrot's speed and grappling ability, this is a good matchup for him because I don't think he's going to be submitted. Therefore, he can impose his will, fight hard, stay out of trouble, and let Oliveira make the decision. ——Din Thomas
I know more common opponents don't always work, but Gamrot beat Arman Tsarukyan, and Oliveira lost to Tsarukyan, who was the better wrestler. Oliveira has never been one to stop every takedown, while Gamrot possesses excellent counter-attacking ability. Gamro was able to scramble to stay out of trouble. If he doesn't beat Oliveira, it's going to be a different story because I think Gamro will lose on the feet. But Oliveira couldn't stop Gamrot's wrestling, and Gamrot would stay out of the submission attempt and just outsmart Oliveira. ——Anthony Smith
Betting analysis
Odds accurate as of October 9th. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Parker: Gamrot wins (-105) Gamrot stepped up on short notice and got a career-changing opportunity against Oliveira in the Fight Night main event. If Gamro is able to get into the fight early and often, his wrestling ability and speed will be enough to overpower and frustrate Oliveira. On the feet, Oliveira is the better striker with knockout power, but after being KOed in June, I'm not sure his chin can handle much more. Oliveira is a submission ace, but he doesn't usually get submissions from behind, and that's what I expect from him for most of this fight. I brought Gamrot to surprise.
Parker's best bet against the rest of the deck
Men's Bantamweight: Deveson Figueiredo VS Montel Jackson
Jackson wins (-300): If Jackson can defeat former UFC flyweight champion Figueiredo in Brazil, this could be his coming out party. Figueiredo was coming off a loss to Corey Sandhagen in which he injured his knee, so a matchup with a young, hungry Jackson might not be the friendliest matchup for him upon his return. Look for Jackson to come out and use his speed to take out Figueiredo.
Heavyweight: Jonata Diniz VS Mario Pinto
Diniz wins (-130): Unless Pinto can immediately knock Diniz down and make him submit or pin him for 15 minutes, it's hard to imagine him beating Diniz in a serious fight. Not only is Diniz a better striker, he competes at a higher level and won't be surprised when his opponents try to beat him from the start. Look for Diniz to defend the takedown early and keep the fight going for his fourth UFC win.
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Welterweight: Vicente Luque VS Joel Alvarez
Alvarez wins by KO/TKO: Alvarez will make the jump to the 170-pound division and what a great addition he could be. Alvarez is an all-around fighter and an incredible striker with KO ability. He'll have an interesting fight with seasoned veteran Luke – for as long as the fight lasts. Luque will try to knock Alvarez down, but I don't think he'll have much success, forcing him to get to his feet and trading punches and kicks in hopes of defeating Alvarez. Ultimately, I think Alvarez's pressure and power will be too much for Luque and Alvarez will finish the fight early.