SALT LAKE CITY — The annual Sunflower Showdown between Kansas and Kansas State is one of the most exciting rivalries in college football history.
The 123rd edition will feature two teams with no room for error in Big 12 play. Losses would knock Kansas (4-3, 2-2 Big 12) and Kansas State (3-4, 2-2 Big 12) out of the conference title game.
Kansas State has won 16 straight games in this rivalry but has survived close calls and fourth-quarter comebacks in the past few games. Kansas is the favorite for the first time since 2009 and is looking for a statement win in a renovated stadium.
The state title is on the line in Lawrence, Kan. (10 a.m. MDT, TNT).
game scorer
(Adjust stat advantage by selecting six preview opponents)
3-year average (2022-24): Kansas 53.4 (27th in 68 Power 4) | Kansas 66.1 (11th)
2024 season: Kansas 53.0 (32nd) | Kansas State 61.3 (20th)
2025 Season: Kansas 51.0 (No. 43) | Kansas State 50.9 (No. 44)
My Game Grader formula is a measure of statistical advantage that adjusts based on the strength of your opponent and is a key part of my preseason and in-season evaluations.
In my annual season preview magazine, Pick Six Previews, I picked Kansas State to finish No. 12 and stay out of the Big 12 title game. The 2024 season was supposed to be a big year with a veteran roster, and heading into 2025 they had to replace a large senior class that was both the coordinator and the school's all-time rushing champion.
So far, they've slightly exceeded those expectations and have wins over two teams in the league that have had coaching changes in UCF and West Virginia. They lost to another rival, Missouri, 42-31 (-340 yards) in the Border Battle, lost to Cincinnati (37-34) in a shootout, and were eliminated by Texas Tech.
At Big 12 media day, coaches selected Kansas State as their preseason pick to win the conference championship. I disagreed and went against the crowd, lowering them to sixth in Big 12 projections. They have lost four games so far — two of them in Big 12 play — and are 1-4 in single-game play.
They needed a late comeback to survive against FCS North Dakota State.
The two teams have almost identical Game Grader rankings, ranking 43rd and 44th respectively out of 68 Final Four teams.
Kansas has the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics based on Draft Six preview)
Kansas offense: 6th among 68 Power 4 teams, 3rd in passing, 26th in rushing
Kansas State defense: 44th among 68 Power 4 teams, 34th in pass defense, 48th in rushing defense
In his sixth season, quarterback Jaylon Daniels saved his best for last. He leads the entire Big 12 in quarterback rating so far and is the only one in the league to finish in the top four in every key metric: quarterback rating, yards per attempt, touchdowns and completion percentage.
These statistics don't take into account his elusiveness and scrambles in the pocket, thereby extending plays and freeing up receivers.
Kansas had the nation's most senior wide receivers last season before losing them in the offseason but has found a new star around Alabama transfer Emmanuel Henderson. He ranks fourth in the Big 12 with 76 yards per game and leads the league in per-catch average (min. 30 catches).
Kansas State's defense has struggled this season, allowing 27 points and nearly 400 yards per game, and is below average in both my opponent-adjusted rushing and pass defense numbers. Kansas should be able to successfully move the ball consistently and make some explosive passing plays.
Kansas has the ball
(Opponent-adjusted metrics based on Draft Six preview)
Kansas State offense: 41st among 68 Power 4 teams, 37th in passing, 31st in rushing
Kansas defense: 33rd among 68 Power 4 teams, 17th in pass defense, 54th in rushing defense
Avery Johnson was expected to reach the Big 12 entering 2025, but the second-year starter's performance has regressed, ranking 12th in the Big 12 in quarterback rating. Although he only threw two picks, one of them was extremely costly against Baylor, when he threw a pick-six just as they were icing on the game, turning what could have been a winning game into a loss.
He bounced back with his best performance of the season in the last game, throwing 3 touchdowns (undrafted) in a 41-28 win over TCU.
The offense has been without their explosive running back Dylan Edwards, who was injured in the first game and has yet to fully explode. Without Edwards at full strength, the offense shifted to more of a passing game, which is unusual for Kansas State.
They pass the ball on 50 percent of their games, which may not sound like a high number, but it ranks 12th among the Final Four in the most passing games. That just adds to the defensive intensity of Kansas, which ranks 17th among the Final Four in my opponent-adjusted pass defense statistics.
match predictions
My Game Grader formula puts these teams nearly tied in the season-long standings, which would work out to a Kansas win prediction of about 3 points (depending on how you look at Lawrence's home-field advantage).
However, my other offensive/defensive opponent-adjusted stats are heavily skewed in Kansas State's direction. That leaves me leaning toward a hometown Jayhawks touchdown that would finally end one of the nation's longest streaks.
Kansas 31 | Kansas 24