Executive Summary
- After Bitcoin signed at its all-time high in August, the remaining $110,000 – $116K of “air gap”. The rebound from $107K selling at $107K has been backed by sales, but short-term sales pressures for holders have limited that momentum so far.
- The profits of holders over 3-6 months and the loss realization of the recent top buyers caused headwinds. Maintaining the rally requires a stable price at $11.4K above $114K to rebuild confidence and attract inflows.
- Liquidity on the chain is still constructive, but the trend is lower. Meanwhile, ETF traffic has slowed to ~±500 btc/day, weakening trade festival demand that had previously risen in March and December 2024.
- As spot demand softens, derivatives have become the main driver. Futures base and quantity remain balanced, and interest in opening options is rising, indicating that the market structure is more risky.
- The market is at the intersection, and reclaiming $114K may spark new momentum, while the risk of breaking down below $108K will bring the next band in the next cluster close to $93K.
Gap range
All-time in mid-August, the market momentum gradually faded, reducing Bitcoin to below the cost base of the recent top buyers and returning to a $110,000-$116,000 “air gap.” Since then, prices fluctuate in this range, gradually filling it as supply redistribution. The key question now is whether this represents the first phase of healthy consolidation or deeper contraction.
As shown in the Cost Base Distribution (CBD), this distribution ultimately obtains a map of supply at the price level, and the supply sold from $108K is supported by a clear buying pressure chain, a “buy immersion” structure that helps stabilize the market.
The report examines seller dynamics and motivations for link and chain chain metrics, highlighting the power that is most likely to drive Bitcoin’s next decisive move out of this range.
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Map supply clusters
First, we first plot the cost basis of the cluster at the current price around the current price, as these levels usually anchor short-term price action.
According to CBD Heatmap, three different investors are currently shaping price action:
- The cost base for top buyers has approached $113.8K in the past three months.
- Last month’s Dip-Buyers gathered $112.8K.
- Short-term holders for the past six months are fixed at $1.083 million.
These levels define the current transaction scope. Retrieval of $113.8K will return to top buyers to make a profit and drive a bullish continuation. However, a crash below $108.3k has the potential to put short-term holders in losses, which could trigger new selling pressure and open a path for the next major supply cluster of low bands at $93K.
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Experienced short-term holders make profits
After determining the supply clusters within the current price range, we next consider how different holder accomplices perform in the rebound from $108K to $11.4K.
While Dip-Buyers provides support, sales pressure comes primarily from experienced short-term holders. The 3-6-month cohort achieved approximately US$189 million (14-day SMA) per day, accounting for approximately 79% of all short-term holders’ profits. This suggests that investors who bought before February to May used the recent rebound to make a profit, creating a standout headwind.
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Top buyers realize the loss
In addition to the earnings of experienced short-term investors, the recent top buyers have also lost the market in the market by realizing losses during the same rebound.
The daily losses of the cohort for the highest 3-month period were as high as US$152 million (14-day SMA). This behavior reflects early stressful periods in April 2024 and January 2025, when peak buyers surrendered in a similar manner.
In order for a mid-term gathering to recover, the demand must be strong enough to absorb these losses. If the price stabilizes above $114,000, confidence will be restored and new inflows are encouraged, confirmation will be confirmed.
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Absorb the liquidity of the seller
As profits and losses are achieved force the market to put pressure on, the next step is to evaluate whether new liquidity is sufficient to absorb these sellers.
Net realized profits are expressed as share of market capitalization, providing this measure. The 90-day SMA peaked at a peak of 0.065% in August, and the trend has been lower since then. Although weaker than the peak, current levels remain higher, indicating that inflows are still supporting.
As long as the price holds a price of more than $108K, the liquidity background remains constructive. However, deeper collapses can waste these inflows and further gatherings.
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Tradfi loses steam
In addition to chain flow, it is also crucial to evaluate external demand through ETFs, which have been the main driver of this cycle.
US ETF NetFlows has dropped sharply since early August and is now hovering in ±500 BTC per day (14-day SMA). This is much lower than the inflow intensity that supports early rallies in the current cycle, highlighting the power loss for Tradfi investors. Given the key role ETFs play in cheering up, their slowdowns have increased vulnerability to the current structure.
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Derivatives in the spotlight
As on-chain liquidity softens and ETF demand fades, attention is now shifting to the derivatives market, which often sets the tone when spot flows weaken.
Quantity incremental deviation, which measures the deviation of the cumulative volume Delta from its 90-day median, recovered from $108K during the rebounding period, is a signal of exhaustion among sellers across venues such as Binance and Bybit. This suggests that futures traders help absorb recent selling pressure.
Going forward, the evolution of derivative positioning is crucial to navigating the market in this low-spot environment.
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Balanced futures market
Deeply delving into the future, we find a market that looks balanced rather than overheated.
Despite higher prices, the three-month annual futures base remains below 10%, reflecting a stable demand for leverage without the extremes that are usually ahead of liquidation. This suggests that structure is healthier and more consistent with accumulation, rather than speculation.
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Permanent futures volume also remains unchanged, consistent with typical multiplication after rest. The lack of positive leverage spikes suggests that it is based on stability rather than speculative surplus.
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Choose a role growth in risk management
Finally, the options market provides further insight into how participants manage and shape risks.
Bitcoin options open interest has reached record highs, reflecting their importance. By providing spot access to ETFs, many institutions prefer the option of managing risk through protection, covered calls or defining risk structures.
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Implicit volatility continues to decline, a sign of a more mature and liquid market. The general tradfi strategy volatility sales introduce stable downward pressure on implicit levels, with prices being more stable than in the past cycle.
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Open compositions show a clear tendency toward calls, especially during the high-level regime, highlighting a market that prefers bullishness while still managing downside risks. Together, these dynamics suggest a healthier, risk-managed market structure that may curb the upcoming euphoria and bearish action.
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in conclusion
The Bitcoin market is currently defined by a delicate balance between seller pressure and weakening inflows. The profits of experienced short-term holders, coupled with losses from recent top buyers, have limited uptrend momentum and leave a range of $110,000-$116,000 as the main battlefield.
Liquidity on the chain is still constructive, but the trend is low, while ETF flows (once the cornerstone of the rising space of that cycle) lose their intensity. As a result, derivatives markets have greater importance, and futures and options activities help absorb sales and shape price directions. Encouragingly, both futures foundations and choice positioning are more balanced than past overheated stages, indicating a growing firmness in the market.
Going forward, the ability to recycle and hold over $114K is essential to restore confidence and attract fresh inflows. If you don't do this, there's a possibility of putting renewed pressure on short-term holders, ultimately at $108K and finally at $93K as the key downward level. In short, Bitcoin sits at a crossroads, derivatives underpin the structure, and broader demand must be strengthened to strengthen the next ongoing rally.
Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided to provide information,,,,, It is just an educational purpose. You must not be responsible for your investment decisions based on the information provided here.
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