SOUTH BEND, Ind. — It took seven games, two losses and a ton of false starts to get here, but now, with Notre Dame's biggest test of the season behind them and five games left as favorites, the Irish can firmly say they know who they are. Yes, that's probably what head coach Marcus Freeman always wanted them to be.
It's been a fall filled with trial and error, and the Irish are now expected to make the College Football Playoff. After a season of trying to get everything right with a new quarterback and new defensive coordinator, Notre Dame has traveled enough ground to believe nothing can go wrong.
“I wish I could tell you that there's been one game in my career or my coaching career that's been perfect, but it hasn't been like this in my career or my coaching career,” Freeman said. “So you can't stand for something once, or tell someone, 'Hey, if this happens, this is what we're going to do,' and not live it and have confidence that it's going to execute in the game.
“Usually, I think more importantly, you look at the mistakes that happened during the game and you look back and say, 'Why? Where did we make a preparation mistake, right?' Someone went the wrong way on a play. Well, we didn't repeat it enough, or we didn't teach him enough, or he didn't study it one-on-one with his coach enough.”
Notre Dame represents, teaches and learns enough now. That was on display last Saturday night against USC, but it took root earlier, when the Irish lost to Miami and Texas A&M and then got pushed by Purdue and felt like a crisis team. These moments are part of Notre Dame’s climb, and the reasons aren’t entirely bad. By figuring out who they weren't during those weeks, the Irish got to where they wanted to be.
Now there's a different challenge, not being able to remain static in the second half of the season.
“So you need to look for more,” Freeman said. “Well, we didn't execute. Let's look back at the process on Saturday and see where we failed and make sure we ramp up our preparations. So I don't think there's a clear line to say, 'We did that.' You just keep repeating it and then identifying the problem after it happens and saying, 'Okay, where did we fail in the process?'”
A closer look at Notre Dame's midseason break:
The biggest surprise
Notre Dame left training camp believing its defense would improve under Al Golden under Chris Ash. While the team struggled with communication and performed slowly in the Miami game, it was viewed as the first game under a new system under a new coordinator. When it was shredded two weeks later against Texas A&M, Freeman seemed to have his defense on the wrong horse. By the end of Purdue's run, it felt as though the defense was going to ruin Notre Dame's season.
The Irish gave up 98 points in their first three games. The only other time Notre Dame was worse was in 2007, when the team went 3-9.
Then the defense got better, to the point of shutting down Arkansas, Boise State and North Carolina in succession, then reducing USC's pyrotechnic offense to nothing more than sparks. Notre Dame allowed a total of four touchdowns to these schools below average.
This begs the question, what's the bigger surprise? Did Notre Dame start so badly, or improve so much, so fast? Either way, the jagged nature of the Irish defense is difficult to understand. No matter how much Freeman talks about execution, clarity, and speed, this near-death experience was more complicated than that.
biggest breakthrough
Are there any other options?
In your summer fan poll, you predicted that C.J. Carr would be the breakout player of Notre Dame's season, and that's been tracked from opening night in Miami to USC, despite the bumps along the way. He's on pace to set a single-season passing efficiency record and is a freshman All-American. Athletic team The Irish are a mid-season team and are at the top of the single-season points-per-game record. It's all been a dizzying rise for Carr, who went from barely earning a starting job to projected to be a first-round pick after next season.
At his best, Carr puts the offense together and is able to attack every area of the court vertically and horizontally with his arms. Supported by Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price, the redshirt freshman has a clear view of defenses bent on taking away first downs… except USC.
After more than a decade of waiting for Notre Dame’s next great quarterback, C.J. Carr is finally here.
For the Irish to make another playoff appearance, they'll need a strong interior offense from their makeshift lineup on both sides of the ball. Michael Crabb/South Bend Tribune/USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
The biggest omen
Notre Dame has used seven different defensive line configurations in seven games. Perhaps the team will lose three of its best interior offensive linemen for the rest of the season. For a program that prides itself on being ahead of the curve, it's stretched on both fronts heading into November, with major tests awaiting in December and beyond. If the Irish aren't firing on all cylinders in both trenches, can they be what Freeman wants them to be?
That was basically the reality for the Irish last season, with Howard Cross battling an ankle injury throughout November and Riley Mills exiting the CFP game against Indiana with a knee injury. But that didn't take away from losing Jordan Botelho and Boubacar Traore to ACL injuries in September. Notre Dame also shuffled its offensive line last season, playing the entire regular season without Charles Jagusah, missing two starters with injuries and a third on the bench, and then lost starting left tackle Anthonie Knapp in the semifinals against Penn State.
Every program has limited depth, and Notre Dame saw that in the national championship game when its damaged defensive line couldn't put pressure on Will Howard. The Irish should settle into a makeshift lineup for the rest of this year's regular season. But getting into the playoffs again requires good medical conditions.
Five (necessary) risers in the second half
Joe Otting: Ready or not, when Ashton Craig's left knee buckled against North Carolina State, the starting center position became Otting's position for the rest of the season. After his performance against USC, it suddenly wasn't the worst thing in the world. Last season, the Irish had to replace Craig with veteran Pat Coogan for three games. It works great. Would Otting write the same story, just without the pregame speech? One game isn't enough of a sample size to bet on the redshirt sophomore, but Notre Dame should feel much better about Otting today than it did a week ago.
Ty Johnson: Starting with practice at the start of training camp, where Johnson twice challenged Carr, there was a sense that the redshirt freshman had star potential that Notre Dame's other safeties did not. It's hard to find a 6-foot-2, 192-pound safety that can move as well as Johnson, who showed up near the goal line against USC. It's also a process for the young safety to learn how to run deep coverage, which was on display against USC. Johnson will be tested against Navy's option attack, but the bigger test may come in the playoffs. Johnson isn't the next Kyle Hamilton, but that's not a ridiculous comparison.
Dallas King: Someone has to be the weak link in the secondary, and considering the staff moved him to nickel the week before Purdue and then had the freshman figure it out on the fly, there's no shame in being a Goldman. Against USC, Golden seemed to start to figure it out. With DeVonta Smith's playing time likely to be an issue throughout the season, Golden needs to make his performance against the Trojans a regular one. His rookie season may not compare to Leonard Moore's a year ago, but he's playing a much tougher position that has eaten freshmen alive in previous seasons.
Sullivan Absher: Notre Dame rotated Gelby Lambert and Absher at left guard against Miami before selecting Lambert at left guard. Now, with Billy Schroth out with a left knee injury, Absher will likely be in the starting lineup for five straight games, which could keep him out of the regular season. In theory, Absher would keep Schraus' job ahead of the CFP, but with Notre Dame now losing both its first-choice center and left guard, it won't be a simple transition. Yes, Notre Dame has a champagne problem on the offensive line. But it's still a problem that Absher needs help solving.
Any defensive tackle: Gabe Rubio will likely miss the entire regular season with a serious elbow injury, losing Notre Dame's most productive defensive tackle. However, with Jared Dawson, Donovan Hinish, Elijah Hughes and Jason Oyer all working on the Trojans' offensive line, the position collectively moved up against USC. The eight pressures from defensive tackles were Notre Dame's second-highest of the season. There may not be a dominant defensive tackle in this group, but if the players can repeat last weekend into November, it could guarantee that Notre Dame's defense will continue to grow.
Notre Dame’s remaining schedule
dateopponentProbability of winning
November 1
94%
November 8
91%
November 15
73%
November 22
96%
November 29
96%
Shaded dates are away games. Win probabilities are provided by Austin Mock's CFP prediction model.
Predict final record
No surprise here. Much like Notre Dame a year ago midseason, the Irish appear to be on a smooth road to the College Football Playoff, once again snapping a ten-game winning streak. USC is no longer in the regular season finale, but out. There are three road dates, but Notre Dame will be heavily favored on all of them. The offense has felt a bit all-around as of late, even if it's putting up all-time numbers. Defensive coordinator Ash feels he has enough information on his roster and players understood to make the defense a consistent contributor throughout November. For those who prefer to take it “one game at a time,” it's almost safe to look ahead to the CFP, potential opponents and note some grounded interest that could help Notre Dame's seed. Notre Dame's success this season has always been to get the CFP and roll the dice in another game. The schedule shows the Irish have five games remaining. But what if Notre Dame actually has nine other games?
Final record: 10-2