NFL quarterbacks' 'mid-level' contracts boom this season

NFL quarterbacks have signed eye-popping contracts over the past few offseasons. Tua Tagovailoa, who has yet to win a playoff game, received a four-year, $53 million per year contract from the Miami Dolphins in 2024. Two months later, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys agreed to a record-breaking $60 million per year contract extension.

There's no mystery as to why teams spend so much money — as the saying goes, you need a top-tier quarterback to win a Super Bowl. Teams will pay to avoid falling behind, even if they don't have complete confidence in their players. As a result, the floor for quarterback extensions has risen from about 10% of the salary cap to about 15% over the past decade.

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There are 15 quarterbacks in the NFL making at least $45 million this season, plus a slew of young or backup players making less than Cam Ward's $12.2 million rookie salary, and only seven quarterbacks in between those two extremes.

These seven “mid-level” contract quarterbacks, whose salaries account for approximately 5% to 15% of the team's salary cap, are our focus here. There are several teams this season that can acquire elite quarterback play without paying elite money or resorting to the draft.

The breakout star of the season is Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones. The former No. 6 overall pick signed last offseason at a discount — one year, $14 million — after spending six years with the New York Giants and making just one playoff appearance. He led the Colts to a 7-1 record, leading the NFL in scoring with 33.8 points per game while ranking second in the league in expected points per game (EPA).

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Other attempts to resurrect former No. 1 overall picks have been fruitful in recent years, with the Minnesota Vikings going 14-3 in 2024 under former New York Jets third overall pick Sam Darnold. However, they were unwilling to pay to keep Darnold this season, so the Seattle Seahawks signed him to a three-year, $100 million deal and are now 5-2. Darnold ranks fourth in EPA per game.

However, no highly touted prospect has had more of a fall and a rise than Baker Mayfield. The 2018 No. 1 overall pick was waived by the Cleveland Browns in exchange for a fifth-round pick after his four-year rookie contract expired. After brief spells with two other teams, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took a chance on Mayfield in 2023, leading them to the playoffs and signing himself to a three-year, $100 million contract extension. The Buccaneers, currently 6-2, now have their players. After the first quarter of this season, Mayfield is an MVP candidate, but his salary is less than half of the league's quarterbacks.

This is a big season for “mid-level” quarterback contracts, but there have been other recent examples of success. The Tennessee Titans posted back-to-back double-digit wins in 2020 and 2021 while paying Ryan Tannehill an average annual salary of $29.5 million, or 14.9% of the salary cap, slightly less than what the top players at the position make.

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When the Colts entered the playoffs in 2020, 39-year-old Philip Rivers was making just $25 million. Oh, by the way, the Buccaneers won the Super Bowl the same year Tom Brady took a pay cut and made $25 million.

There have also been failures in “middle-tier” contract scope. The New York Jets signed Justin Fields to a two-year, $40 million deal this year with a 1-7 record. Fields had been on the bench before and then returned to the bench after half a season. Likewise, Geno Smith's second “mid-level” contract hasn't been as successful as his first — after posting winning records with Seattle the past two seasons, he and the Las Vegas Raiders are just 2-5 in seven games.

It's worth noting that the top four teams with the best odds to win the Super Bowl, according to DraftKings, do have a superstar quarterback and pay him a similar salary: the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers. But hiring one of these top signal callers doesn't appear to be a prerequisite for contention. Four of the seven teams with quarterbacks in the “middle” salary zone have at least a 25-to-1 chance of winning, while six of the 15 teams with quarterbacks making more than $45 million a year win.

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