Fantasy football preseason hype could be an evil seducer. Try as hard as possible and it's hard to stay airtight with exaggerated player reports that wash you ruthlessly like the storm incident on the North Shore of Hawaii. Every summer, I tell myself to ignore noise and unswervingly think about logic and rationality. But please do my best, I must admit that I have been infected with Treveyon Henderson Mania.
Henderson may be the king of pre-season reliefs in 2025. He has been thriving at the late August Fantasy Draft due to some breathtaking demonstrations of his talent during the preseason and the rise of the fantasy community for the above performances. In a recent article by Michael Salfino on the largest pre-season ADP riser, he told Henderson:
“They have already worked for Canton after returning to TD in the preseason kickoff. I was shocked that there was only 38.6 (overall), frankly. People drafted Henderson in the second round. I didn't have hype. Although I've been trying to downplay the hype, even though Henderson will never be on his health in Ohio State, can I work on Ohio State now? This fire.”
Honestly, I shared Safino’s emotions for most of the summer. However, I consider Henderson is increasingly passing his latest ADP through the logical lens, I am actually more of a buyer than the seller.
Salfino’s big question, mine is “Does Henderson have to be Zhongniu to provide a corresponding ROI at his current location price (RB15)?”
Henderson got a lot of additions to Jahmyr Gibbs with his elite disengagement ability and top pass resume (as a receiver and pass protector), and when he finished RB9 on PPR, he wasn't a Bell bull, with his rookie season (RB9) with Detroit's rookie season (Backfield Montgomery) and his rookie season (Backfield Montgomery) averaged 16.8 per game to hit Gibbs' 15.6.6 15.6. Indeed, the Lions will have better offensive infrastructure than Henderson has to use. But can we expect Henderson to get a similar touch to Gibbs’ rookie season? And, if he does, what about Henderson's reasonable production line?
To answer the touch question, let's start with the expectations of our own Jake Ciely. He had Henderson do 181 sprints and 51 receptions. Interestingly, Gibbs' inaugural season resulted in 182 goals and 52 catches. I see you, Jack! OK, where is ESPN's Mike Clay? More bullishers were on 225 carry and 43 catches (267 touches). Professional Football Focus (PFF)? In the light, 164 carry and 35 receive (199 touches). OK, let's have another one – Yahoo? 199 receptions and 40 receptions (239 contacts).
OK, three of these four predictions have Henderson checked 240 touches. So with something that has been exposed to less than 240 times, what does Henderson need to post a top 15 RB exercise? View FFTODAY's PPR scores over the past 24 seasons date back to 2001, with an average score of 213.8 PPR points. Last season was an unusually high of 245.6 points (Chuba Hubbard), the second highest-span RB15 finish line – 256.1 (2002 Duce Staley) is the RB15 High-Water Mark. The lowest RB15 since 2001 was in 2015 (188.1, Demarco Murray). In fact, this is a drought period for RB15 production, with the average RB15 average score of 194.4 PPR points in 2014-2017. Over the past five seasons, the average RB15 scored 217.4, despite a peak year in 2024, it still matched the entire 213.8 points of the entire 213.8 points. Therefore, 213.8 is a good goal for Henderson. If he produces this reward, he will at least be close to justifying his ranking.
So let's look for rookie running guards who touched the ball 239 times or less in the past 24 years, who also scored 213.8 fantasy scores. It happened eight times in that span – once every three seasons on average. However, seven of the eight defenders have accomplished the feat over the past 12 seasons, once every 1.7 seasons. Let's take a look at Henderson's poster RB follow suit:
Player
team
season
PPR PTS
RB completed
Touch
RUSH ATT
hurry
rec
rec yds
TDS
Alvin Kamara
2017
315.4
RB3
201
120
728
81
826
13
Maurice Jones-Drew
2006
273.7
RB8
212
166
941
46
436
15
Jahmyr Gibbs
2023
244.1
RB9
234
182
945
52
316
11
Christian McCaffrey
2017
230.6
RB9
197
117
435
80
651
7
Giovani Bernard
2013
224.9
RB13
226
170
695
56
514
8
Philip Lindsay
2018
222.8
RB13
227
192
1037
35
241
10
Mile Sanders
2019
218.7
RB15
229
179
818
50
509
6
David Johnson
2015
215.8
RB8
161
125
581
36
457
12
avg
242.8
RB10
210.9
156.4
772.5
54.5
493.8
10.3
As you can see, there are several ways to make this RB15 cat skin, but the average number of backs managed at this level on the necessary limited workload is about this: 210 touches, 772.5 sprint codes, 54.5 reception, 494 receiving codes, 10 TDS.
If I'm looking for the defender who has the greatest hope for Henderson's prospects in this combination, it's Giovani Bernard. Here are some similarities between the two defenders:
- Bernard is the 37th pick in the 2013 NFL Draft; Henderson is the 38th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft
- Bernard is 5-foot-9 and weighs 205 pounds; Henderson
- Both have praised the skills of receiving through protection and acceptance of universities
- Bernard, as a rookie, ceded the 220 carry and 7 sprint TD to (former Patriots!) Benjarvis Green-Ellis, who finished 220 goals with an RB40, ceded the 220 carry TD, and Rhamondre Stevenson is located in the current ADP.
Bernard is still RB13, although it only has 170 carrys, less than the double-digit TD (8). His receiving game productions powered him as his 32.1 catch yards ranked third among the crew. If Henderson will have a much smaller 200 goals, he may need 50 catches north to have a chance to return to his draft value. After all, you can't expect him to get a needle and thread in like David Johnson, despite only 161 contacts, he's still a rookie.
Therefore, the reception desk rises. Henderson's landing site must be considered an idyllic competition ceiling. Over 18 seasons, both as head coach and offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels’ leading receiver at the defender averaged 50 receptions. He brought him to the hilt when he was able to find an RB in the pass game. If you haven't guessed, I'm talking about fantasy legend James White, who played a four-year match against McDaniels in 2016-2019, averaged 68.8 receptions, won RB7 in 2018 with only 181 catches (87 catches) (87 catches), and RB19 received 139 touches (72 catches) in 2019.
So, given Henderson's personal image and possible role for the Patriots, the path to RB15 seems to be achievable. Of course, like any running in a fantasy football game, the best ability is usability. Of the eight defenders listed in the picture above, they all played at least 15 games, and you might point to the top of this article, Salfino (the five are sophomore feet). He played 47 of 55 games in total (85%), with an average of 14.2 contacts in those games.
Suppose he plays 15 games (88%) over the next season, with an average of 14 contacts. Calling it 10 times, New England lacks talent, can be said to have four catches per game, winning 150 goals and 60 catches. If he averages 4.5 yards per carry and 8.0 yards per catch, that is 675 yards and 480 yards. For reference, in 2024, there were 17 stocks that averaged over 8 yards (minimum 30 catches), 19 discounts, averaged 4.5 yards per carry (minimum 100 sprints) and 6 Switzerland, both of which achieved success (including last year’s rookie Bucky Irving). So these are the benchmarks Henderson has obtained. Let's set his TD total to a modest 7. In PPR, net scored 217.5 points – 0.1 better than the average RB15 over the past five seasons. This will return at least RB15's value in 15 of the past 24 seasons.
My friends, I think this is the logic behind how Treveyon Henderson delivers his fantasy football hype in 2025, the explanation behind. He is my RB15 and in my three upcoming 12 teams now, I will be easily accepting him in round 4 from now to the kickoff game.
(Photo by Treveyon Henderson: Brad Rempel-Imagn image)