Every week in the NFL has its own story — full of surprises, both positive and negative — and fantasy football managers have to decide what to look forward to and what not to believe. Maybe we can help. If any of these ideas become reality… don't be surprised!
Note: Unless otherwise noted, all fantasy points mentioned are for PPR format.
Seattle Seahawks WR Cooper Kupp, who caught 1,947 yards for the Los Angeles Rams in 2021, is no longer a top fantasy football option. He just missed out on the all-time single-season receiving yard record set by Detroit Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson in the 2012 season of 1,964. Others have threatened to reach 2,000 receiving yards in recent seasons, including Minnesota Vikings star Justin Jefferson and Miami Dolphins star Tyreek Hill. Cincinnati Bengals star Jamal Chase led the league with 1,708 receiving yards last season.
Don't be surprised if…Seattle's Jaxon Smith-Njigba becomes the first to reach 2,000 yards receiving
We're back to “Chasing 2K” again. Smith-Ngiba, who is entering his third season away from Ohio State with nearly 300 yards receiving over the past two games, leads the NFL with 696 yards on pace for 1,972 yards. Some may question whether Smith-Ngiba, who ranked 12th with 1,130 receiving yards last season, can continue this stellar start as quarterback Sam Darnold has performed well, there are two reliable running backs, and Kupp is a factor in the passing game. The answer is yes, he can.
First, stop thinking Darnold is great. As with Tampa Bay Buccaneers starter Baker Mayfield, what happens early in a player's career becomes somewhat irrelevant. Darnold was outstanding for the Vikings last season, throwing for 35 touchdowns and 4,319 yards. The No. 9 fantasy quarterback last season enters Week 7 as the No. 12 selection, but if we remove a disappointing Week 1, he ranks eighth. Darnold ranks third in passing yards. He is good enough.
As for the running game, fantasy managers may have noticed that neither Kenneth Walker III nor Zach Charbonette has really thrived. The Seahawks rank 24th in rushing yards per game despite ranking sixth in rushing attempts. The passing game is still very much alive. Not so with the running game. Kupp, meanwhile, has four catches per game, which isn't too much of a factor. When Darnold throws, Smith-Ngiba is targeted more than 36 percent of the time. The schedule is also beneficial. It's time to use a 2,000-yard receiver.
Other WR/TE ideas that shouldn’t be surprising:
Editor's Picks
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When it comes to Mayfield, who is a legitimate contender for NFL MVP, it doesn't seem to matter which of his receivers are available. Veteran WR Mike Evans (hamstring) and may play this week. He missed three games but should still reach 1,000 yards for the 13th time in 13 seasons. Watch TE Cade Orton. His numbers aren't exciting, with 15 catches in six games, but nine of those catches have come in the past two weeks. Orton was outstanding last season when Evans was sidelined with injury. In three games at this point in October/November, Orton has caught 25 passes for 258 yards and three touchdowns. He can repeat this.
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Speaking of 2,000 yards receiving, some may remember the first 2025 edition of the “Don't Be Surprised” series on January 7 of this year, when it was predicted that Rams WR Puka Nacua would be the first to reach that mark. Through five games, Nacua is on track to achieve that goal. He then sprained his ankle in Week 6 and it appeared he would miss Sunday's game in London. That would be 2,000 fewer yards for him. Oh well. Perhaps that author was referring to Smith-Njigba. Watch Nacua return in Week 9 and finally crack the top three WRs.
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Nacua, Smith-Njigba and Lions star Amon-Ra St. Brown enter Week 7 as the top three PPR scoring receivers. They have something else in common: Each has a Week 8 bye. Plan ahead as 6 teams are off in Week 8. Don’t be surprised if 99% of fantasy managers ignore this information by next Tuesday and we’ll see a lot of Malik Washington and Hunter Renfrow types in the lineup (you don’t want that).
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Philadelphia Eagles TE Dallas Goedert Leading the way with five touchdowns is awesome, but might make unhappy WR teammate AJ Brown cringe every time this happens. Brown wants more love. The same goes for DeVonta Smith. Well, everyone does, really. Still, Goedert has missed 15 games over the past three seasons. Add him, but he's unlikely to lead the tight ends in touchdowns. How about Dolphin Apocalypse? Darren Waller? He had four scores in three games but was held to just six catches without a touchdown due to the team's strange in-game load management schedule. In a way, he's this season's Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (now teammate), who had nine touchdowns on 32 catches with the Tennessee Titans last season.
It's been a slow start for Patriots rookie running back Tre'Vion Henderson, but will that change? Brad Rempel – Image
After long-time starter Lamond Stevenson ran 13 times for 18 yards against the New Orleans Saints last week, some thought the Patriots would give the Ohio State rookie a legitimate shot. Stevenson scored a couple short touchdowns against Buffalo in Week 5, but he averaged 3.1 yards per carry overall, and he still has issues with fumbles. Henderson had a slightly better performance against the Saints, gaining 36 yards on 10 touches, but he looked better. He's better. Henderson has to run all over the Tennessee Titans this week.
Other RB thoughts shouldn't be surprising:
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We continue discussing New York Giants stars Cam Scatterbo Because it does seem like he's the RB1 option. In fact, he might be a better option than the Hawks star Saquon Barkley. Scatterbo scored three touchdowns against the Eagles last week. Barkley has three touchdowns in six games and will be under 1,000 yards this season after rushing for more than 2,000 yards last season. It helps that Scatebo has touched the ball 20-plus times for three consecutive weeks without his team pushing the quarterback. In fact, Scatterbo could lead running backs in touchdown runs this season. Despite rushing 33 fewer times, he trailed Jonathan Taylor by just two points.
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Assuming Barkley plays 15 or so games, he will have over 1,000 rushing yards this season, but coaches are expecting much higher. It's not a particularly wise time to trade him, but these numbers are ugly right now. The Eagles must establish their running game quickly. They should. Barkley was on my “undraft” list this season, but I didn't expect his PPR points to rise from 22.2 points per game to 14.9 points per game.
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Kansas City Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco He's looked much better in recent weeks, peaking with 51 yards rushing in a win over the Detroit Lions. He needs more rushing volume because the Chiefs can't possibly expect quarterback Patrick Mahomes to lead the team in rushing yards, but he still does. This is dangerous for Mahomes, and it affects the running back too much. Pacheco will be even better this week against the Las Vegas Raiders. Maybe he can be a flex player once in a while.
Don't be surprised if… New Orleans Saints QB Spencer Rattler becomes the safer QB2 soon
Going forward, Spencer Rattler could emerge as a viable backup in Week 8 when six teams have byes. Stephen Lu/Imagn Images
Little attention is paid to Rattler in ESPN standard leagues, as he is still available in 96.3% of leagues. Rattler is the 18th-ranked fantasy quarterback so far, but the more popular pass rushers on the roster include Carson Wentz, Cam Ward and Joe Burrow (65%, but mostly at the IR position). Rattler averaged 14.3 points per game. That's not great, and maybe it's because he's only thrown one interception in six games (to some extent, Alex Smith's old way of providing fantasy value), but look at the schedule. The Saints' next two games are against the Chicago Bears and Buccaneers. These defenses provide the quarterback with countless fantasy points. The Diamondbacks are capable, wide receiver Chris Olave is great, and, again, six quarterbacks have byes in Week 8. A Week 8 matchup against the Diamondbacks makes perfect sense.
What other QBs think shouldn't be surprising:
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As a lefty, I love Sunday's matchup between Dolphins lefty Tua Tagovailoa and Cleveland Browns lefty Dillon Gabriel, the first matchup between starting quarterbacks who don't throw right-handed since Michael Vick faced Chris Simms in 2006. How is this possible? Well, look around. There aren’t many left-handers. Jim Zorn played it a long, long time ago. I like Atlanta Falcons left-hander Michael Penix Jr., who is the best lefty in fantasy right now, but there are no numbers yet. Excuse me while I'm going to watch some of Ken Stabler's highlights now.
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New York Jets starters Justin Fields He scored more than 25 points in three of his five starts. This is so impressive. Did your fantasy starter achieve this goal? Probably not, as only Mahomes can match that number. Josh Allen, Mayfield and Jalen Hurts currently rank second, third and fourth in quarterback scoring, with a combined 25 points in three games. Well, Fields had a terrible Week 7 performance. We all admit this. He threw for just 45 yards. Ignore it. It's been a week. The Jets don't have Tyler Shaw or Shaddell Sanders lurking, nor do they have Kirk Cousins or Kenny Pickett. I'm Tyrod Taylor. Fields is a great runner. He might not score 25 points this week, but he's not going to lose his job, and he really shouldn't be near the top of the list of quarterbacks with the biggest declines, because he's a really good fit for fantasy (most of the time)…and in Week 8, he'll face the Bengals.