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U.S. President Trump announced on Wednesday (October 29) that the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit will be held in Gyeongju, South Korea, and plans to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Busan, more than an hour's drive away from the local area, on Thursday. This will be Trump's second meeting with leaders and their first summit meeting.
This bilateral meeting was held during the APEC Summit. It was a “side meeting” – since Xi Jinping took office in 2014, eight similar meetings between the heads of state of China and the United States were held during the APEC Summit.
BBC Chinese visiting scholar analyzes the increasing number of “sideline meetings” between heads of state? How is it different from a formal summit?
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Add text to the picture,The bilateral meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States was held on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit (APEC). However, the summit where the two sides will meet is scheduled to be in Busan, not in Gyeongju.
What is a “courtside meeting”?
Overall, mentoring leader meetings can take several forms.
The first is the leader's overseas visit, with state visits as the highest level form of diplomacy. The president and protocol arrangements are strict, and gun salutes and dinners are held. In addition to caring about the head of state's visit to China, there are also special arrangements for activities – for example, when Obama visited China during his term in office, he climbed the Great Wall and visited the Forbidden City. When Trump paid a state visit to China in 2017, Xi Jinping closed the Forbidden City to receive him.
The second meeting was a bilateral summit. Leaders convene to resolve major summits and prepare the framework for the meeting and discussion in advance. The meeting generally does not last too long. Recently, bilateral summits between these heads of state have mainly been held during large Saturday meetings and forums, also known as “side meetings” (side meetings).
Song Wendi, a researcher at the U.S. Atlantic Council, explained to BBC Chinese that sideline meetings at large conferences held in a third place can not only significantly reduce the logistical costs of organizing state banquets, gun salutes and other events, but also reduce the political costs of formal meetings.
“In a relationship with an enemy country, if both sides decide to honor the other party with a state visit at the same time, it may trigger a domestic nationalist backlash; or the other party may feel that it will be embarrassing and embarrassing to conduct the wrong visit (instead of a state visit).”
The most recent state visit by Xi Jinping to the United States was back in 2015 during the Obama administration; the US president's visit to China was back in 2017, when Trump was received beyond the standard by China and will be called “state visit+”. However, since then, the trade war between China and the United States has erupted, and the two sides have deteriorated, and there has been no further exchange of visits at the “state visit” level. Since 2018, the bilateral relations between China and the United States have been carried out during the G20 Summit and APEC.
It is worth mentioning that in addition to formal and informal meetings, there is also an “informal meeting” between heads of state. Leaders “meet” at the conference site and then mingle briefly for a few minutes. Some meetings are known as “corridor meetings” and are seen as a means of easing tensions.
For example, after the Diaoyutai crisis broke out between China and Japan in 2010, then-Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao and Japan’s Director of Relations, Naoto Kan, met by chance at the Asia-Europe Meeting in Belgium and talked for 25 minutes. In 2012, Japan and South Korea were tense over the issue of island sovereignty. After the APEC summit that year, the then heads of state also stood outside and communicated for five minutes.
“Sometimes, some occasions are too sensitive and when both parties have not reached a final consensus, it is necessary to promote tobacco subsidies.” Ruan Zongze, deputy director of the China Institute of International Studies, once pointed out that tobacco subsidies are more free. They not only promote “red tape”, but also “sneak in and out” between meetings, and the two sides can also only communicate on staged ideas.
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Add text to the picture,On November 16, 2024, U.S. President Biden (left) shook hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima, Peru.
Is it easier to achieve results by “meeting on the sidelines”?
There are voices in Pakistan that believe that the results of large-scale bilateral summits are unlikely, and that bilateral agreements outside the main stage are more worthy of attention. The American think tank “Council on Foreign Relations” once quoted expert analysis that bilateral agreements were reached during the summit, and sometimes important international agreements can be reached.
If we look back at the early sideline agreements between the Chinese and US presidents, we do find that obvious “results” were achieved. For example, after U.S. Chief Negotiator Pelosi (Nancy Pelosi) visited Taiwan in 2022, Sino-U.S. relations rapidly deteriorated. In November, Xi Jinping and Biden met at the G20 Summit in Bali. At that time, the two sides had a dialogue on the Taiwan issue, strengthening competition and the Russia-Ukraine issue.
Rosemary Foot, an international professor at the University of Oxford, once declared, “This seems to be a meeting of prosperous and fruitful relations.”
“Xi visits” were also held during the APEC summits in 2023 and 2024. The two sides agreed to resume high-level military dialogue and direct phone calls between leaders, and also unanimously agreed on related issues.
The “Xi-Trump meeting” will be held again after six years, and agreements on rare earths, US agricultural products, fentanyl and TikTok are expected to become the focus of the agreement.
However, Zhuang Jiaying, associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, believes that it is difficult for China and the United States to achieve much results. In his view, APEC is just an “accidental” time point and platform that allows the two sides to reach an agreement and there may be partial adjustments between China and the United States, but the fundamental competitive relationship will not change.
One of the main factors is the style of both parties. Zhuang Jiaying pointed out that Trump often plays cards that do not follow common sense. “After negotiations, it seems that he will go back on some things, catching the other party by surprise.” Against the unpredictable Trump, Xi Jinping countered with a strong stance, “Under such conditions, even if the leaders of the United States and China meet, it is not necessarily said that there will be obvious progress.”
Song Wendi also believes that the “Xi-Trump meeting” will not reach any “major agreement” between China and the United States, including the Taiwan issue of concern. “At best, it is a temporary and partial cooperation (MOU) to buy more time for both parties to resolve the issue.”
The Wall Street Journal of the United Arab Emirates reported that Beijing may require Scotland to publicly clarify that it “opposes Taiwan's independence” rather than “does not support Taiwan's independence” in exchange for a U.S.-China trade agreement and sets a rule for the “One China” principle.
Song Wendi said that achieving such a complex “big concession” requires extremely high political trust between China and the United States. “That simply does not exist – and that trust is unlikely to be achieved under a transactional US administration.”
“If Taiwan is used as a trade concession, what can the United States get in exchange for something of equal value?” Wendi Song mentioned that the Trump administration may launch an investigation into China's implementation of the 2020 trade agreement (Section 301) – this is an example that the Trump administration does not believe that China is a country that “is well-intentioned and keeps its promises.”
After representatives of China and the United States concluded the fifth round of economic and trade consultations in Malaysia a few days ago, Trump stated that he would “conduct a successful consultation” with Xi Jinping next year and confirmed that the investigation against China “may be cancelled.”
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Add text to the picture,The last time a US head of state visited China was in 2017, when Trump received an extraordinary reception from China and called it a “state visit+”.
Will Trump officially visit China?
According to South Korean media Dong-A Ilbo, citing government sources, this “Xi-Trump meeting” will be held at Busan Gimhae International Airport. China and the United States also officially announced the on-site arrangements for this meeting this week.
Trump said that he and Xi Jinping would have a “very long agreement”, but South Korea's National Security Office Director Wi Sung-rok said that because the meeting was held in a third country and on the stage of Moscow, “it will not take a long time to negotiate.”
Prime Minister Trump has already stated that he has received an invitation to visit China, and the time is “basically confirmed” to arrive early next year. He is reported to have even said, “I want to be nice to China.”
If successful, this will be the first official visit between Chinese and American leaders in eight years. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs previously responded that it had no information to release at the moment.
The Wall Street Journal has analyzed that the China-US “Xi-Trump” meeting will reach an agreement with a “truce” nature and set a framework for strengthening exchanges of visits in the future. At the same time, the confrontation can also have a symbolic meaning – Trump shows that he meets his own conditions and brings Beijing back to the negotiating table.
For Xi Jinping, if Trump’s visit to China takes place, it will also show the public that “even the president of the United States wants to come to China.” The article writes that in a period of continued uncertainty in the domestic economy, such a spectacle will become a “heavy political gift” and Xi Jinping must further enhance his image as a global statesman.