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Saturday's game against Southern Methodist University should be the toughest test on No. 10 Miami's schedule. Emphasis on “should” because, as we saw last year (and to some extent, this season), Mario Cristobal's teams do tend to underperform when they appear to have all their problems figured out.
SMU is 5-3 overall but 3-1 in the ACC, even after a tough loss to Wake Forest last weekend. The Broncos need a spot in the standings if they have any hope of returning to the College Football Playoff, and that might be possible if they can defeat Miami as a 12.5-point underdog on Saturday at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
Miami vs. SMU odds, predictions
The first thing to note about this game is that this is Miami's schedule.
While the Hurricanes looked bad against Louisville, there's reason to wonder if they were aided by a controllable route that has allowed them to play just one road game this season. That road game was in Tallahassee.
The Canes do have impressive wins against Notre Dame, Florida, Florida State and USF, but oddly enough, this will be their first game outside of the Sunshine State all season.
SMU has been lackluster this season, but the Broncos do have one of the best defenses in the country. SMU is allowing just 93.9 yards per game on the ground (11th) and 2.7 yards per carry (8th).
The problem is that the pass defense leaves a lot to be desired.
SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings. Associated Press
Betting on college football?
Carson Baker had a terrible game against Louisville a few weeks ago, but other than that, he has been a source of funds for the Canes and is certainly in the Heisman conversation. Baker should be able to improve his numbers against a defense that is giving up 7.5 yards per carry (89th) this season.
While I don't believe the Hurricanes will be around long-term, this is a great stylistic matchup and they should be able to rely on Baker to beat the Broncos without too much fuss.
Repertoire: Miami -12.5 (-106, FanDuel)
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Michael Leboff is a long-suffering Islanders fan and long-time profitable sports bettor with 10 years of experience in the betting industry. He enjoys using game theory to help bettors win bracket pools, find long shot opportunities, and learn how to beat the market in both mainstream and niche sports.