Brett McGurk is a CNN Global Affairs Analyst at George W. Bush.
With world leaders attending the UN General Assembly (UNGA) gathering in New York this week, their focus will be on the immediate crisis, including Gaza and Ukraine, and both conflicts are now ready to continue until 2026 for the rest of the year.
I have attended many joint meetings with the presidents of two political parties. These issues are often dominated by current headlines, but looking back, the stories of these gatherings are usually not covered, not covered.
For example, at UNGA in 2013, no one expected the second year to be dominated by ISIS's global scourge. Ten years later, at UNGA 2023, no one expected Hamas to invade Israel and ignite the Middle East within a few weeks. Similarly, in 2019, no one expected a global pandemic to change the way we live anytime soon.
This year doesn’t seem to be any different, because if we look forward, today’s pace of ruthless events in global affairs could be an appetizer for what is about to happen.
First, let’s consider the instant crisis, which will take up most of the focus this week.
In Gaza, this year began with a commitment to a three-Taiwan ceasefire agreement to ensure the release of all hostages and ultimately end the war. After the first phase, the agreement was destroyed in March, and since then, we have seen a deadlock and a humanitarian crisis, the largest Israeli military operation in the war, with hostages still in possession.
Now, there is no end immediately, or an agreement is reached on what to do next.
In New York, several countries led by France and the United Kingdom will recognize a Palestinian state, whose borders and sovereign attributes will be determined somewhere in the future. These countries will also demand that Hamas give up and disarm – this meeting End the war – but they are not able to achieve this result.
Unfortunately, these symbolic actions may worsen the situation. They will trigger Israel’s counterattack in the West Bank and, according to the demands of their distorted world view, that is, on October 7, a price worth paying for the Palestinian life in Gaza – providing a potential solution to this terrible war, even harder to achieve diplomatic realization.
In Ukraine, this year saw Washington twists and turns, calls for a unilateral ceasefire replaced calls for a full deal, military support for Ukraine stopped and restarted, and sanctions on Russia were threatened but never implemented, but never implemented. President Donald Trump's senior summit in August, where Russian President Vladimir Putin's European allies in Alaska and Washington were unable to seize the battlefield while he was seeking to acquire land and ensure that Ukraine could defend itself in future Russian invasions, playing the greatest role of highlighting Putin. Ukraine will never accept such clauses, and diplomacy is at a loss.
Saying or doing anything in New York this week will not change Putin's calculations as Ukraine is now heading towards a cold winter and the biggest Russian attack in the entire war.
Finally, there may be a lot of discussion in Gaza and Ukraine this week in New York, but no action is expected to be taken to help rainfall or resolve both conflicts.
Now compare this week's performance gathering of New York leaders to a summit in Beijing three weeks ago – ostensibly to mark the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. This image is shocked with Russian President Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, the United Nations, along with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian.
The alliance of this country, China-Iran-North Korea (Crink), is not only symbolic. Ukraine's current frontline is actively shaping global reality that is opposite to the United States. North Korea has sent thousands of soldiers to fight against Ukraine with Russian troops. Iran provided the Ukrainian drones to Russia and transferred its technology to Iranian drones inside Russia, resulting in a mass attack in Ukraine in the past six months. China remains the largest buyer of Russian energy products, helping to fund wars and maintain Russia's economy.
Now considering that Xi Jinping has ordered the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) to prepare for a possible invasion of Taiwan by 2027, this event will truly collapse, with an estimated global economic shock of about $100 trillion and undermining the supply of advanced semiconductors to maintain our daily activities every day. We might look back in a few years and wonder how anyone at UNGA 2025 discusses this possibility?
As of today, most experts have not assessed that Xi Jinping would order an invasion so quickly, and he may never do so, preferring operations in non-military gray areas such as cyberattacks, propaganda, military exercises, economic pressure and diplomatic isolation. The aim is to steadily erode Taipei's confidence until it is forced to accept complete unification with the mainland without a full-scale war.
However, according to the global guardian of the risk assessment company, the chances of invasion are as high as 35%, and the rise of further arises as Beijing establishes military preparations.
In one month of each month, XI, like Putin’s to Ukraine, will calculate the opportunities and costs of clearly designated targets for Taiwan.
This is what links the Ukrainian crisis to broader global risks:
If the Wrinkle Alliance is strengthening for a month and Putin is facing a lower cost of his aggressive war in Ukraine, the risk of XI's more aggressive approach to Taiwan will increase, including the aggression of other members of the clinker, including Iran's Middle East and North Korea's Iranian hegemony ambitions over North Korea's instable behavior.
President Trump was asked about the image of the Beijing summit, saying: “They wish I was watching.” Later, he wrote in a message about XI: “The warmest greetings to Vladamir Putin and Kim Jong Un when you conspire against the United States of America.”
The President is right about the intention and purpose of this gathering. These leaders sent a message to Washington. The problem now is the message sent by Washington.
Composed in this way, the second year of Trump’s second term is shaped as a historic gateway to consolidate and stabilize the world, or an increasing world of chaos and conflict. If the risk and cost of aggression for Putin and other wrinkle leaders is reduced, then we can expect the latter. If costs rise, and the alliance's network has historically been strengthened by the United States – from NATO to Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and the Philippines, the former is expected.
Apart from bringing the United States and China ongoing race in terms of artificial intelligence, we compete with the closest technology since the Cold War, the dining table is set to 2026, perhaps one of the most important years of a generation.
President Trump often regards Ukraine's conflict as a burden for his succession, and the issue is only related to the battle in eastern Ukraine. Some of his top advisers dismissed the relevance of Ukraine to U.S. interests or were distracted from the need to prevent future conflicts in Taiwan. This two-dimensional view misses the global implications of the Ukrainian conflict, as exemplified at the recent Beijing summit.
The Crink capital clearly sees Ukraine as the core war of its future interests, and they act from this perspective. Similarly, the Pacific's American allies (especially Japan and South Korea) are voice advocates of Ukraine, and he recognizes that the Russian failure there will help restrain and stop XI's ambitions in its region.
Therefore, a strategist who looks at the coming year should think in three dimensions and work to consolidate support for Ukraine to increase Russia's economic costs while also actively pursuing negotiated solutions that put the war in trouble. Similarly, in the Middle East, the war in Gaza ended and returned to the agenda of regional integration, peace in the region and global remains at the heart of Iran, which is further restricted.
If these two conflicts continue to break down and nothing knows, the seams of the global order will be further torn, and wrinkles increasingly claim advantage in many regions of the world.
This is the situation discussed in New York this week, but it is probably the most important issue of global security and the United States' position in the world.