We came across the Bear paper about Stickty’s inclusion strategy on Valueinvesting subreddit. In this article, we will summarize the Bulls' paper on MSTR. As of August 27, the shares of the Strategic Company were trading at $342.06. According to Yahoo Finance, MSTR's trailing and forward P/E are 23.99 and 7.72, respectively.
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MicroStrategy (MSTR), once known for its enterprise software business, has seen a stagnant side of operations, with flat revenues that have nothing to do with the company's valuation. The investment narrative has been completely transferred to Bitcoin, turning MSTR into a leveraged proxy for cryptocurrencies, rather than a value-creating business. The company adopts what some call a “permanent diluent” model: issuing debt and selling new stocks to buy other bitcoins.
Since MST's shares are always trading at a high premium for the value of the Bitcoin they hold, the cycle adds to the Bitcoins per share of existing investors as long as new buyers continue to pay high prices. However, this setup exposes existing shareholders, as they actually pay a 2x or higher premium over direct Bitcoin ownership. Cheaper, more direct vehicles (such as on-site or leveraged Bitcoin ETFs) disrupt the logic of buying MSTRs, raising questions about their premium sustainability. Much of the company's market appeal depends on the sales skills of Executive Chairman Michael Saylor and his nearly nurturing abilities in the “Digital Rise” paper.
Critics argue that the current structure and valuation of MSTR is less fundamentally dependent, but more based on investors’ belief in Saylor’s narrative. Combining the history of valuable episodes, such as MicroStrategy's dramatic crash during the internet outbreak – these dynamics create unstable settings. As long as new capital continues to flow in, the function of the model; if not, premiums may evaporate quickly, causing MSTR shareholders to overexpose Bitcoin’s volatility and narratively driven risks.
We've covered it before Bearish essay Charly AI highlighted the deterioration of software operations, the high leverage of Bitcoin accumulation, and the fragile balance sheet on Charly AI's Strategy Establishment (MSTR) in May 2025. The company's shares have depreciated by about 10% since our coverage. The paper still exists because the fundamentals are still weak. Stickty has a similar view, but emphasizes the risk of MSTR narrative-driven premiums.
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